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Future Vision of the Optoelectronics Industry


(Placed on the WEB in March 2005)


May. 6, 2005

In November 2004, the Optoelectronic Industry and Technology Development Association (OITDA) published the fourth (*) "Future Vision of the Optoelectronics Industry -Evolution and Development in the Border-disappearing World-" Relevant documents and the outline of this vision are shown below. You can see the PDF file documents shown below by clicking the titles which put underlines.
Outline of "Future Vision of the Optoelectronics Industry"
    "Future Vision of the Optoelectronics Industry" was planned just after IT bubble had burst and developed to be a "positive and inspiring" vision. The outline of this vision is as follows:

    • A demographic aging, an environment-friendly and an expanding borderless society will be characterized as social trends in the 2010s. The optoelectronics industry will go on changing in accordance with these social trends.

    • The size of the optoelectronics industry's global market was 29 trillion yen in 2002. It is expected to be 59.8 trillion yen in 2010 (at 9.5% average annual growth rate), and 106.5 trillion yen in 2015 (at 12.2% average annual growth rate.) Among these figures, a new market (a market created by products using new technologies) is expected to account for 22% proportion of the total market in 2010 and about a 37% proportion in 2015.

    • The order of regional market size is as follows: North America > Europe > Other region > Japan. This trend will hold for some time in the future.

    • Four application fields which are display/lighting, info-communications, input & output, and optical memory will account for the largest market proportion over three-fourths of the total market size both in 2010 and 2015. Medical care/welfare and solar energy will have higher annual average growth rates. Info-communications will also have relatively higher annual average growth rate.

    • Optical technologies expected to flourish in use beyond the mid 2010s are: Optical packet switch, Quantum cryptographic communications, 3-D display, Sheet display, Photocatalysis, Solar power generation, Optical cancer treatment, Optical CT, Optical agriculture, Quantum dot, Photonic crystal, Nano optical processing/femto-second laser processing and so on.

    • The actual domestic production volume was 6.2 trillion yen in 2002. It is expected to be 12.7 trillion yen ( comprised of 10.1 trillion yen existing products and 2.6 trillion yen new products) at 9.5% average annual growth rate in 2010, and 23.0 trillion yen (comprised of 14.7 trillion yen existing products and 8.3 trillion new products) at 10.7% average annual growth rate in 2015. The overseas production ratios are estimated at 17.1% in 2002, 25% in 2010, and 30% in 2015 respectively.

    • The following mid- and long-term growth factors and prospects of the optoelectronics industry were presented:
      "Optoelectronics industry" will lead the next fifty years as an upswing economic cycle called Kondratieff Wave, facilitate the revitalization of domestic production, lead "the Gross National Cool," lower the interaction cost and change the industry structure and so on.

    • The followings were wrapped up as a proposing strategy for promoting the optoelectronics industry:

    1. Coping with a border-disappearing world
    2. Creating market/stimulating demands
    3. Facilitating research and development
    4. Strengthening intellectual property/standardization strategy
    5. Reinforcing education and cultivating experts
    6. Developing and supporting start-up or small businesses
    7. Utilizing regulation policy and promoting deregulation

    Some examples of listed above are: international collaboration such as facilitation of accepting business entities and researchers/engineers from foreign countries; promoting software/contents industry; procuring preferentially optoelectronic products by the central and local governments; developing a technology roadmap and providing information; strengthening intellectual property policy and standardization strategy; founding an intermediate agency among industry, government and academia; promoting organization standards; facilitating early implementation of LLC/LLP and so on.

    *: Since OITDA was founded, four future visions of the optoelectronics industry including this time have been developed as follows.

(1-1) The first future vision March, 1981: Future vision of the optoelectronics industry I
- How to change future society with optoelectronic technologies -

(1-2) March, 1982: Future vision of the optoelectronics industry II
- Proposing strategy how to develop industry and forecasting industry size towards the year of 2000 -

(2)The second future vision March, 1990: Future vision of the optoelectronics industry
- Perspective on the optoelectronics industry towards the twenty-first century -

(3) The third future vision
March, 1995: Future vision of the optoelectronics industry
- Beginning of the second information age -

(4) The fourth future vision (This time) November, 2004: Future vision of the optoelectronics industry - Evolution and Development in the Border-disappearing World -

Contact point:
Kenkou Taguchi
    Senior staff, Development Department
    The Optoelectronic Industry and Technology Development Association
    Email: Taguchi@oitda.or.jp
    Telephone: 03-5225-6431
    Fax: 03-5225-6435
This work was subsidized by
the Japan Keirin Association
through its Promotion funds
from KEIRIN RACE.
URL: http://ringring-keirin.jp/
Optoelectronic Industry and Technology Development Association
1-20-10, Sekiguchi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-0014, Japan
Tel: +81-3-5225-6431
Fax: +81-3-5225-6435
URL: http://www.oitda.or.jp/index-e.html/
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